Today promises to be an interesting, volatile day, with Friday being the last 1.5 months determining movements over the weekend. A particularly important trend in the crypto market is the tendency to often return to Friday’s closing prices (on Sunday evenings).
News
Yesterday’s news was negative: US GDP for Q4 was revised, inflation was higher, personal consumption was worse, and the labor market was completely healthy – the perfect picture for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. But I am concerned about market expectations from major players. The market has already realized the impending recession and rate hikes, but there has been no significant decline.
At 16:30, there will be a block of US statistics, with the main indicator being US CPI for January 2023 (a significant event, with volatility expected to be moderate as the data should not deviate significantly from forecasts). In the evening, there will be speeches by members of the Federal Reserve again. By the way, speeches were canceled on Thursday for unclear reasons.
Basic Scenario
Some positivity at 16:30, followed by a decrease, but how Friday will end is a question mark. The cryptocurrency market has hit strong resistance at $23,500 – $23,800 (BTC), and if it breaks through, it could experience a deep correction, or on the contrary, bouncing back from current levels could lead to a new wave of growth, with new triggers for a decline expected in the future. In the current situation, it is difficult to break through resistance.
Alternative Scenario
It would be irrational to break important levels after four consecutive red daily candles. It would be more effective to organize another wave of growth to form comfortable shorts. And perhaps, after some positivity at 16:30, cryptocurrencies will be able to develop good growth and continue over the weekend up to $24,800 per BTC.
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