Yesterday the market began to decline, and BTC even broke through the channel of $21,950 – $22,700. While the exit from the channel was false, the wave of decline may continue. However, I still believe that we won’t see a really strong movement in the market before Friday.
Powell’s speech before Congress yesterday caused the market to slump. Now the market is afraid of a 0.5% rate hike in March. Over the past few weeks, the Fed has gone from the possibility of no rate hike in March to the possibility of a 0.5% hike. After yesterday’s speech, it can be said that Powell is probably the worst Fed chairman in the past 40 years. The Fed should be meeting its goals of controlling inflation and the labor market, while being predictable and understandable for investors. Currently, the market is freezing as it watches for news on inflation and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
Inconsistency, inappropriate flirting with the market, and a desire to avoid responsibility for what is happening – this is what can be said about Powell’s work at the Fed.
News
At 18:00 (GMT+3), Powell will continue to speak before Congress. I won’t be surprised if he changes his tune today and we see a slight rebound. Perhaps the market was too scared of his words yesterday.
Base Scenario
The probability of a decline is currently higher, but we are unlikely to see a serious sell-off before Friday. Although if we evaluate everything only by technical analysis, the market is about to collapse.
Longs are possible now with short stops, and I would open shorts only after the BTC breaks through $21,900. Altcoins have been performing poorly in recent days.
The most important report on the labor market on Friday will indicate the direction of the market for several days.
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